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SPIKE R-459: the skipped MariaDB conversion is stable, and the trade it implied does not exist
Outcome A, qualified. Not B and not C.

It does not degrade: 5 of 5 restarts of 12.3 on an 11.6 datadir, readback passed
every time, mariadb_upgrade_info unchanged, the entrypoint line never escalated
past [Note]. It also never heals - the engine answers 'Major version upgrade
detected from 11.6.2-MariaDB to 12.3.3-MariaDB. Check required!' on every start
and will forever.

The trade R-459 was expected to produce is not real. Converting properly SUCCEEDS
across the multi-major jump, takes 7 seconds, backs up the system database
unasked - and putting 11.6 back afterwards STILL starts and serves the data. So
the operator is being handed a cheap correction, not a choice between a correct
engine and a reversible one.

The exit-code polarity was measured rather than read: 0 means the upgrade IS
needed, 1 means it is not. Assuming either the flag name or the polarity would
have inverted the headline. And run without credentials the same command returns
a confident-looking FATAL ERROR that is an auth failure.

R-464: after converting and going back, the entrypoint prints 'MariaDB upgrade
not required' on a state the same engine calls an unsupported downgrade. The
obvious cheap instrument for R-459 would have been to grep for that line, and it
would have reported fine for the broken case.

R-463: the PostgreSQL analogue, deliberately NOT measured here. 11 templates, 8
on postgres:16-alpine, register grep for pg_upgrade returns zero. The two engines
fail in OPPOSITE directions - MariaDB skips quietly, Postgres refuses to start -
so that one cannot hide; it presents as eight apps down at once.

No template changed. Teardown all three layers, hub checked rather than asserted,
local-lvm 30.53 percent before and after.
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