Campaign 10: correct R-157 — the failure is INTERMITTENT (3 of 6), not deterministic
The first write-up said R-157 reproduced "at the same cycle in both runs - deterministic, not a coincidence". Wrong. The cycle numbers matched only because the runner's RNG is seeded so both runs drew the same permutation. The failure itself is a coin flip: run 2b's four hard resets went PASS(c2), FAIL(c10), PASS(c18), FAIL(c26); run 2a went PASS(c2), FAIL(c10). Three failures in six. The correction matters because it changes what kind of bug this is, and it strengthens rather than weakens the root cause: intermittency is exactly what a race against container-state settling predicts, whereas a wrong predicate would fail every time. Signature is identical on all three occurrences: rallly Exited 255 with rallly-postgres healthy, bootrecon reporting "no boot-orphaned apps" about 5s after controller start, and the container count still churning after the sweep (third occurrence 01:05: refresh 8, bootrecon 01:05:13, then 8 -> 7 -> 8).
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@@ -292,8 +292,10 @@ when the run started.
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### R-157 — bootrecon's start-ONCE sweep acts on an unsettled snapshot; the boot orphan survives
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**New. Register grepped: R-52 is the feature, nothing covers its timing.** Reproduced twice, in two
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independent runs, at the same cycle (seeded permutation). Full evidence:
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**New. Register grepped: R-52 is the feature, nothing covers its timing.** **INTERMITTENT — 3 of 6
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hard resets (~50%)** across two runs, with an identical signature each time. (An earlier draft called
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this deterministic because the failing cycle numbers matched; they matched only because the runner's
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RNG is seeded. Intermittency is what a race predicts and a wrong predicate does not.) Full evidence:
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`../tests/campaign10-evidence-2026-07-31/r157-bootrecon-start-once-race.md`.
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A `qm reset` mid-backup brought everything back **except the app half of the DB-backed stack**:
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