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hub v0.111.0: notice a deletion within a day (R-431); correct R-429; re-scope R-95
THE RECORD WAS TELLING A WORSE STORY THAN THE TRUTH FOR TWO MONTHS, and my own probe is why.

R-429 CORRECTED. Yesterday's spike searched for a directory called `.snapshots`. The vendor documents
the path as /.zfs/snapshot. The probe's CONTROLS were sound and its SUBJECT was wrong, so "not found"
was true and meant nothing. Re-probed at the documented path on both boxes, with controls:

  - /.zfs lists (shares, snapshot) from inside the jail;
  - a write into /.zfs/snapshot is REFUSED - dest open ...: Failure - while the identical write to
    the account home SUCCEEDS and was cleaned up.

That is the append-only property PROVEN rather than cited, and it is the sentence the whole re-scope
rests on. Seven daily snapshots are confirmed in the panel. The mitigation works. What remains true,
and was always the actual finding: the row claiming it had no R-number, its "confirm tomorrow" went
36 days unanswered, and the DUE-CHECKS block built for that class was empty. THE FINDING WAS NEVER THE
SNAPSHOTS - IT WAS THAT NOBODY COULD TELL.

R-95 RE-SCOPED: the box can delete its LIVE repository but cannot write to the daily snapshots of it,
so a deletion costs at most one day plus a per-file recovery - not open-ended loss. The ranking is
Viktor's; it has been #1 since July on the old story.

R-432 FILED: a sub-account sees /.zfs/snapshot EMPTY while the same box holds seven snapshots, so
per-file recovery is operator-only today. One panel read settles whether a NAMED snapshot can still be
entered, which would make it product-reachable.

R-431 SHIPPED. Third signal in OffsiteChecker. On the hub deliberately: a detector on the box is one
the deletion can silence. Threshold REASONED, not invented - over 12 898 reports every decrease lands
on ZERO and predates stats_known, and in the stats_known window there are none, so observed churn gave
nothing to calibrate against. Retention cannot halve a total; a mass deletion goes to ~0. Hence: more
than half, and at least 5. Guarded by StatsKnown (R-331), the declared State (R-204) and run success
(R-100 - whose lesson lives in this very file).

ACCEPTANCE: 9 009 real report points replayed through the detector produced ZERO alarms.

Three red-proofs run. The escalation one only became real after the first version was found HOLLOW -
it re-swept the same report, so the baseline had already moved and the latch was never consulted.

07 row 10's status is NOT moved: the write-refusal is measured, but the recovery ROUTE has never been
walked, which is what PARTIAL means.
2026-09-01 14:25:24 +02:00
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