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Sizing check 2026-10-14 — do the estimator's numbers hold on a second machine, with apps together?

Box: demo-hp (AMD Ryzen Embedded V1756B, 4 cores / 8 threads, 29,994 MiB), guest 9201. Tools: the sizing bench (sizing-2026-10-13/tools/: bench.py, guest_sampler.sh, host_sampler.sh, actions.sh) pointed at demo-hp — only the box constants change. „Page says" figures are computed with scripts/test_build_sizing_web.py's mirror of sizing.js on website/assets/sizing-data.json (no JavaScript runtime on DooPlex). Deploys through the product; path fields take their default (the enrolled drive). The box already runs 11 apps of its own (Home Assistant and Paperless among them); they stay, and they are measured as they are.

Predictions (written 00:20 UTC, before any deploy)

Item Page says Prediction
„Just files and passwords" at rest (nextcloud + vaultwarden) typical 314 + 44 MB; peak 525 + 99 MB measured rest below the page's typical (N100 figures were taken idle) — 250–400 MB together
Immich during a 200-photo import, with the others busy too peak 3,061 MB 2.0–3.0 GB (the HP's faster CPU ends the ML jobs sooner, the peak is the same model loading)
Jellyfin forced transcode peak 373 MB 300–600 MB (used counts the file cache of the video)
Paperless 20 scans (consume folder) peak 659 MB 600–900 MB (OCR workers)
The set's real peak, all working at once, vs the page's sum of peaks (5,045 MB + platform 470) 5,515 MB the real simultaneous peak is 60–80 % of the sum — the page's „all at peak at once" is pessimistic, as it says
Platform (controller, traefik, cloudflared, filebrowser) 470 MB 350–500 MB

R1 — the numbers together (evidence evidence/R1-set/, summary set-summary.json)

Windows (UTC): rest A 00:18:02–00:48:02 (files + passwords only; the 00:30 db-dump falls inside); together 00:51:00–00:54:44 (Immich 200-photo import + its ML jobs, Jellyfin scan + forced 1080p transcode, Nextcloud 50 × 10 MiB WebDAV upload — all three at once); Paperless 20 scans 01:01:40–01:08:33 (alone: the bench first put the scans in a sub-folder, which Paperless does not read — moved at 01:01:40); rest B 01:08:40–01:29:30. used = memory.current − inactive_file, per app summed over its containers (the sizing run's definition). No OOM kill anywhere (memory.events).

App Page typical HP rest (median) Diff Page peak HP peak (used) Diff HP memory.peak (incl. file cache)
immich 1,356 1,557 +15 % 3,061 3,290 (during the import) +7 % 4,366
jellyfin 191 188 −2 % 373 448 (transcode) +20 % 497
nextcloud 314 229 −27 % 525 290 −45 % 808
home-assistant (the box's own) 318 352 +11 % 328 434 (after the 00:09 start) +32 % 441
vaultwarden 44 37 −16 % 99 40 −60 % 45
paperless-ngx (the box's own) 568 645 +14 % 659 755 (OCR) +15 % 903
platform (controller, traefik, cloudflared, filebrowser) 470 262 (rest B) – 347 (rest A) −26 to −44 % — 386 — —
The set Page (site rule) Measured on the HP Difference
„Just files and passwords": typical (sum) 358 (+ platform 470 = 828) 210 at rest (rest A); 265 after use −41 % / −26 %
„Just files and passwords": peak 624 (+ 470 = 1,094) 326 (the 00:30 db-dump) −48 %
„Family starter set": typical (sum) 2,791 3,007 (rest B) +8 %
„Family starter set": peak — the page's sum of peaks vs the real peak with three heavy apps busy at once 5,045 (+ 470 = 5,515) 4,900 at 00:52:35 (Paperless at rest then; with its OCR at the same time it would be ~5,100) −3 % (≈ −0 % with Paperless)
platform 470 262–386 −18 to −44 %
host's share (page: box − guest) 32 GB box: 4,708 MB (box − guest 28,060 MiB) not separable here: the HP host also runs Tester 1's 8 GB VM. Host used (MemTotal − MemAvailable) 13.4 GB in rest B, of which the guest's anon 3.8 GB —

Prediction check: „the real simultaneous peak is 60–80 % of the sum" — wrong. It was 97 %. Immich's import peak alone is 65 % of the set's peak, and it coincides with Jellyfin's transcode and Nextcloud's upload as soon as a family uses the box at the same time. The page's „all at peak at once" is not pessimistic for this set; it is about right. The light apps (Nextcloud, Vaultwarden, the platform) are over-stated; Immich, Jellyfin, Home Assistant are under-stated.