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19672e685e
gates / gates (push) Successful in 14s
R-341's first dated check, taken at +46.2 h: fd 17 -> 405 over 166,251 s
= 201.6/day. Pre-registered range was 370-450; observed 388. UNCHANGED,
as predicted. CLOSE-WAIT is 0 -- absent entirely, not merely flat.
Q1: exactly two peers, 194 each, no third party.
Q2: outcome (a). ep0 388 = 194 + 194 on the boxes, twice, and the four
new sockets carry the same source ports on both sides. 0 closed in 31 min.
The finding: all 388 are held by felhom-agent. pvestatd and
proxmox-backup-client made 162,404 requests and leaked zero. Mechanism is
a per-cycle http.Transport with a zero-value IdleConnTimeout that nothing
ever closes (internal/pbs/client.go:56, main.go:1486). R-336's premise
does not survive this -- cutting the poll rate would have fixed nothing.
Q3 NOT measured: Phase C held at STOP 1, prediction pre-registered first.
Part 0 captures the due-checks gate's first conviction on a real overdue
date (rc=1, names R-341, sole failure among 10 gates). Row cleared at
Part 4, after the result was recorded in R-341, not to make a push work.
New: R-344 (the transport leak), R-345 (hub/Makefile pushes :latest),
R-346 (ActiveEnterTimestamp reads 5h56m early -- NRestarts is still 0).
63 lines
4.0 KiB
Plaintext
63 lines
4.0 KiB
Plaintext
PHASE C PREDICTION — written 2026-08-20 ~08:40Z, BEFORE any Phase C measurement exists.
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Same discipline as evidence-ep0-pbs-upgrade-2026-08-18/stop1-ruling.txt: committed to git
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before the mutation is performed, so the result cannot be rationalised afterwards.
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-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
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WHAT PARTS 1-2 ALREADY ESTABLISHED (measured, not assumed)
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-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
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Q2 outcome : (a) — both sides hold every connection. 194+194 = 388 = ep0 total,
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and the 4 new sockets that appeared during the 31-min persistence
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window carry the SAME source ports on ep0 and on the boxes.
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Owner on the box side : felhom-agent, 100% (194/194 on each box, one PID each).
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pvestatd and proxmox-backup-client hold ZERO.
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Elapsed-window rate : 201.6 fd/day (388 fd over 166251 s), 2s = 181.2..222.1.
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Request split : libwww-perl (pvestatd) 81192 req -> 0 descriptors leaked
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proxmox-backup-client 80061 req -> 0 descriptors leaked
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Go-http-client (agent) 811 req -> 388 descriptors leaked
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(387 agent GET /snapshots calls vs 388 leaked sockets: 1:1 within 1)
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-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
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THE INDEPENDENT VARIABLE Phase C ACTUALLY MOVES
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-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
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Stopping pvestatd on demo-hp removes BOTH pvestatd-driven streams from that box (the PVE PBS
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storage plugin issues the libwww-perl datastore list AND shells out to proxmox-backup-client
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for the status call, both on pvestatd's cycle). Expected request effect:
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demo-hp requests 81612 per 46.18 h -> ~982 per 46.18 h (-98.8%)
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BOTH boxes, per day ~84822 -> ~42900 (-49.4%)
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So the request rate roughly HALVES, as the spike intends. IF the ep0 request count does NOT
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fall by close to half, the independent variable did not move and no ratio may be computed.
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-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
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PREDICTIONS, ONE PER HYPOTHESIS. For a 10-hour window (scale linearly for other lengths).
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-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
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H1 NOT PROPORTIONAL — the leak tracks the AGENT's cycle, not the request rate.
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This is what Parts 1-2 predict, and it is the prediction this run commits to.
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demo-hp's felhom-agent keeps running throughout, so both boxes keep leaking.
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expected rate : ~201.6 fd/day, UNCHANGED
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expected count : 84 descriptors in 10 h (2s band 66..102)
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expected split : ~42 from 10.77.0.2 and ~42 from 10.77.0.3 — SYMMETRIC.
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The symmetry is the sharpest single discriminator: under H1 the quietened box keeps
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leaking at the same rate as the control box.
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H2 PROPORTIONAL to total request rate (the hypothesis Q3 was written to test).
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expected rate : ~101 fd/day
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expected count : 42 descriptors in 10 h (2s band 29..55)
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expected split : ~42 from 10.77.0.2, ~0 from 10.77.0.3 — STRONGLY ASYMMETRIC.
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H1 and H2 do not overlap at 2 sigma for a window of 10 h or more. A 6-hour window gives
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50 vs 25 (2s bands 36..64 vs 15..35) — separable but tighter; prefer the overnight run.
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Under Q2 outcome (b) (half-open, ep0 only) the prediction would have been H2-like, and under
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(c) Phase C would not have been run at all. Both are recorded here for completeness; the
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measurement already excluded them.
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-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
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WHAT WOULD FALSIFY THE PARTS 1-2 ATTRIBUTION
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-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
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A result matching H2 — demo-hp's contribution going to ~zero while pvestatd is stopped — would
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mean the socket ownership reading is not the whole story, and the attribution above must be
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withdrawn rather than defended. Say so plainly if it happens.
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