R-195: a customer with no machine ever bound does not alarm (hub v0.92.0) + R-193/R-192 spike

Part 4 (ships): `david` — a prospective customer with hosts=0, host_deletions=0,
reports=0 — e-mailed an expected_dbdump_missed ERROR at 03:00 UTC three mornings
running. The existing down-skip could never cover it: it reads the staleness
checker's state, which is seeded from a query over the `reports` table, so a
customer that never reported has no state at all and GetState() returns "" rather
than "down". store.HasEverBoundHost (hosts row OR host_deletions tombstone) is
consulted once per customer at the top of the deadline loop. The discriminator is
"was a host EVER bound", never "has a report arrived" — a box installed and never
heard from is a real fault and keeps alarming. Fail-OPEN on a read error. Red-proof
observed: removing the guard fails with `got [expected_dbdump_missed]`, verbatim the
event david sent.

Parts 0-3 (spike, NO production code for R-193/R-192):
audits/SPIKE-offsite-credential-recovery-2026-08-04.md establishes that the one-shot
provider password is the RECOVERABLE secret and the restic repository password is the
irreplaceable one — and that a guest rebuild mints a fresh one, orphaning the previous
off-site history. Measured without touching a box, by comparing
host_escrow.restic_pw_sha256 against host_escrow_superseded: BOTH demo boxes changed
(demo-hp 15 snapshots / 40.9 MB, demo-felhom 36 snapshots / 1.14 GB). demo-felhom's
"lucky" 76-second recovery restored delivery and not the repository, silently, for 13h.
ReissueCredentials does NOT rotate the restic password (R-39's record and two hub
comments are wrong -> R-196); candidate (b) is not implementable against a
zero-knowledge escrow; candidate (a) already exists as F3 and is wired to the wrong
event. Ends in ranked options and an unanswered question for the operator.

R-195 SHIPPED; R-196 + R-197 filed; R-192 + R-193 updated, neither closed.

hub/internal/monitor/deadline.go

@@ -336,7 +336,7 @@ func CheckBackupDeadlines(s *store.Store, staleness *StalenessChecker, onEvent E
 	midnightBudapest := time.Date(now.Year(), now.Month(), now.Day(), 0, 0, 0, 0, budapest)
 	sinceUTC := midnightBudapest.UTC()
 
-	var backupMissed, dbdumpMissed, skipped, deferred int
+	var backupMissed, dbdumpMissed, skipped, deferred, unbound int
 
 	for _, id := range customerIDs {
 		// Skip nodes that are down — they already have staleness events
@@ -350,6 +350,37 @@ func CheckBackupDeadlines(s *store.Store, staleness *StalenessChecker, onEvent E
 			continue
 		}
 
+		// ── R-195: a customer with NO machine EVER bound is UNKNOWN, not missed ────────────────
+		//
+		// Both verdicts below ask "did the thing we expect every day happen?". For a customer
+		// that has never had a machine bound, nothing has ever been expected, so the honest
+		// answer is UNKNOWN — the same invariant assessBackupFreshness states above, applied one
+		// level up, at the question of whether there is a subject at all.
+		//
+		// The discriminator is "was a host EVER bound", NOT "has a report arrived". That is the
+		// case this check must not break: a box that was installed, bound, and then went silent
+		// has a real fault and must keep alarming. It is bound, so it is judged.
+		//
+		// WHY THIS WAS REACHABLE AT ALL, measured 2026-08-04: the down-skip above is what
+		// protects every other silent customer, and it reads the staleness checker's state — which
+		// is seeded from the `reports` table (store.GetCustomers). A customer that has NEVER
+		// reported appears in no report row, so it gets no staleness state at all and GetState()
+		// returns "" rather than "down". The skip misses exactly the customer it would most
+		// obviously cover, and the DB-dump half below then fires every night: `david`, a
+		// prospective customer whose record was created 2026-08-01 with no machine ever bound,
+		// e-mailed an expected_dbdump_missed ERROR at 03:00 UTC on three consecutive days.
+		//
+		// Fail-open on a read error: an unreadable binding must never SUPPRESS a real alarm.
+		if bound, berr := s.HasEverBoundHost(id); berr != nil {
+			logger.Printf("[WARN] Deadline check: failed to read host binding for %s (judging anyway): %v", id, berr)
+		} else if !bound {
+			// Visible, per the v0.73.0 Part-7 precedent below: a quiet check must never be
+			// indistinguishable from a check that did not run. Once daily, one line per customer.
+			logger.Printf("[INFO] Deadline check: %s has no host EVER bound — all deadline verdicts UNKNOWN (no alarm)", id)
+			unbound++
+			continue
+		}
+
 		// Backup freshness from the agent's host-report (PBS snapshots + vzdump),
 		// the authoritative offsite-backup signal post-slice-8C.
 		reportJSON, rerr := s.GetLatestHostReportJSON(id)
@@ -423,6 +454,6 @@ func CheckBackupDeadlines(s *store.Store, staleness *StalenessChecker, onEvent E
 		}
 	}
 
-	logger.Printf("[INFO] Deadline check: %d customers, %d backup missed, %d backup unknown (deferred), %d dbdump missed, %d skipped (down)",
-		len(customerIDs), backupMissed, deferred, dbdumpMissed, skipped)
+	logger.Printf("[INFO] Deadline check: %d customers, %d backup missed, %d backup unknown (deferred), %d dbdump missed, %d skipped (down), %d unknown (no host ever bound)",
+		len(customerIDs), backupMissed, deferred, dbdumpMissed, skipped, unbound)
 }

hub/internal/monitor/deadline_unbound_test.go

@@ -0,0 +1,148 @@
+package monitor
+
+import (
+	"io"
+	"log"
+	"path/filepath"
+	"testing"
+	"time"
+
+	"gitea.dooplex.hu/admin/felhom-hub/internal/store"
+)
+
+// R-195 — a customer with NO machine EVER bound must not alarm; a customer WITH one must.
+//
+// Origin, measured on the live hub 2026-08-04: `david` is a prospective customer whose record was
+// created 2026-08-01 16:51:49 with no host ever bound (hosts=0, host_deletions=0, host_reports=0,
+// reports=0). It e-mailed an `expected_dbdump_missed` ERROR at 03:00 UTC on 08-02, 08-03 and 08-04.
+//
+// The mechanism, established at source: the down-skip in CheckBackupDeadlines reads
+// StalenessChecker.GetState(), whose map is seeded from store.GetCustomers() — a query over the
+// `reports` table. A customer with zero reports is in no row, so it has no state, and GetState()
+// returns "" rather than "down". The skip that protects every other silent customer misses the one
+// that never reported at all.
+//
+// These tests pin BOTH halves. A suite that only proved the silence would pass against an
+// implementation that never alarms, which is strictly worse than the defect it replaces.
+
+// newUnboundStore creates a store holding ONE active customer and NO host row at all.
+func newUnboundStore(t *testing.T) *store.Store {
+	t.Helper()
+	st, err := store.New(filepath.Join(t.TempDir(), "test.db"), log.New(io.Discard, "", 0))
+	if err != nil {
+		t.Fatalf("store.New: %v", err)
+	}
+	t.Cleanup(func() { st.Close() })
+	if err := st.SaveCustomerConfig(&store.CustomerConfig{CustomerID: "c1", APIKey: "ck", RetrievalPassword: "p"}); err != nil {
+		t.Fatalf("SaveCustomerConfig: %v", err)
+	}
+	return st
+}
+
+// ── Half 1: the silence ────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
+
+// TestCheckBackupDeadlines_NeverBoundHost_Silent is the david case.
+//
+// COMPANION RED-PROOF (observed): deleting the HasEverBoundHost guard from CheckBackupDeadlines
+// makes this test fail with
+//
+//	deadline_unbound_test.go: a customer with NO host ever bound must raise NOTHING;
+//	got [expected_dbdump_missed]
+//
+// which is verbatim the event `david` e-mailed three mornings running. Restored after.
+func TestCheckBackupDeadlines_NeverBoundHost_Silent(t *testing.T) {
+	st := newUnboundStore(t)
+	// No UpsertHost, no host-report, no db_dump_completed event — nothing has ever been expected.
+	got := runDeadline(t, st)
+	if len(got) != 0 {
+		t.Fatalf("a customer with NO host ever bound must raise NOTHING; got %v", got)
+	}
+}
+
+// TestHasEverBoundHost pins the predicate itself across its three inputs, because the whole
+// behaviour above turns on it and a predicate that answered `false` for everything would make the
+// test above pass while silencing the entire fleet.
+func TestHasEverBoundHost(t *testing.T) {
+	st := newUnboundStore(t)
+
+	if bound, err := st.HasEverBoundHost("c1"); err != nil || bound {
+		t.Fatalf("no host rows → want (false,nil); got (%v,%v)", bound, err)
+	}
+
+	if err := st.UpsertHost(&store.Host{HostID: "h1", CustomerID: "c1", APIKey: "k1"}); err != nil {
+		t.Fatalf("UpsertHost: %v", err)
+	}
+	if bound, err := st.HasEverBoundHost("c1"); err != nil || !bound {
+		t.Fatalf("live host row → want (true,nil); got (%v,%v)", bound, err)
+	}
+
+	// An unknown customer is never bound — the predicate must not answer from another customer's rows.
+	if bound, err := st.HasEverBoundHost("nobody"); err != nil || bound {
+		t.Fatalf("unknown customer → want (false,nil); got (%v,%v)", bound, err)
+	}
+}
+
+// ── Half 2: THE RED-PROOF THAT MATTERS — a bound machine must still alarm ───────────────────────
+
+// TestCheckBackupDeadlines_BoundButNeverReported_StillAlarms is the case the change could break,
+// and it is a real shape: a machine that was installed and bound and never phoned home. It has a
+// `hosts` row and zero reports — indistinguishable from `david` on every signal EXCEPT the one the
+// guard discriminates on. If the guard is ever "simplified" to key off report presence, customer
+// age or a name pattern, this test goes red.
+func TestCheckBackupDeadlines_BoundButNeverReported_StillAlarms(t *testing.T) {
+	st := newUnboundStore(t)
+	if err := st.UpsertHost(&store.Host{HostID: "h1", CustomerID: "c1", APIKey: "k1"}); err != nil {
+		t.Fatalf("UpsertHost: %v", err)
+	}
+	// No host-report and no db_dump_completed — the box was bound and never said anything.
+	got := runDeadline(t, st)
+	if !has(got, "expected_dbdump_missed") {
+		t.Fatalf("a BOUND machine that never reported is a real fault and must still alarm; got %v", got)
+	}
+}
+
+// TestCheckBackupDeadlines_BoundThenWentQuiet_StillAlarms: the machine reported once, days ago,
+// and stopped. Nothing about the guard may suppress that.
+//
+// The staleness checker's down-skip is nil here (runDeadline passes nil), which is deliberate: it
+// isolates THIS guard. In production a genuinely down node is skipped by staleness and gets its own
+// node_down event — that path is unchanged and is not what this test is about.
+func TestCheckBackupDeadlines_BoundThenWentQuiet_StillAlarms(t *testing.T) {
+	st := newUnboundStore(t)
+	if err := st.UpsertHost(&store.Host{HostID: "h1", CustomerID: "c1", APIKey: "k1"}); err != nil {
+		t.Fatalf("UpsertHost: %v", err)
+	}
+	// One host-report whose newest backup evidence is 9 days old, and a db dump that last
+	// completed 5 days ago (i.e. not since midnight).
+	report := hostReportJSON(t, [][2]string{{rfc(-9 * 24 * time.Hour), "ok"}}, nil)
+	if err := st.SaveHostReport("h1", "c1", []byte(report), store.HostReportDenorm{}); err != nil {
+		t.Fatalf("SaveHostReport: %v", err)
+	}
+	got := runDeadline(t, st)
+	if !has(got, "expected_backup_missed") {
+		t.Fatalf("a bound machine that went quiet with stale backups must still raise expected_backup_missed; got %v", got)
+	}
+	if !has(got, "expected_dbdump_missed") {
+		t.Fatalf("a bound machine that went quiet must still raise expected_dbdump_missed; got %v", got)
+	}
+}
+
+// TestCheckBackupDeadlines_DeletedHost_StillJudged: the host row is gone but a tombstone remains
+// (peti-felhom's live shape). The customer HAD a machine, so this check must not take over the
+// judgement — it hands off to the staleness down-skip exactly as before the change.
+func TestCheckBackupDeadlines_DeletedHost_StillJudged(t *testing.T) {
+	st := newUnboundStore(t)
+	if err := st.UpsertHost(&store.Host{HostID: "h1", CustomerID: "c1", APIKey: "k1"}); err != nil {
+		t.Fatalf("UpsertHost: %v", err)
+	}
+	if err := st.DeleteHost("h1", false); err != nil {
+		t.Fatalf("DeleteHost: %v", err)
+	}
+	if bound, err := st.HasEverBoundHost("c1"); err != nil || !bound {
+		t.Fatalf("a DELETED host is still a machine that was once bound → want (true,nil); got (%v,%v)", bound, err)
+	}
+	got := runDeadline(t, st)
+	if !has(got, "expected_dbdump_missed") {
+		t.Fatalf("a customer whose host was deleted was still bound and stays judged here; got %v", got)
+	}
+}

hub/internal/store/store.go

@@ -2262,6 +2262,28 @@ func (s *Store) GetHostByCustomer(customerID string) (*Host, error) {
 	return h, err
 }
 
+// HasEverBoundHost reports whether a machine was EVER bound to this customer — a live row in
+// `hosts` OR a tombstone in `host_deletions`. It answers "was anything ever expected of this
+// customer", which is the question the deadline verdicts actually need (R-195).
+//
+// It is deliberately NOT "has a report arrived", and the distinction is the whole point: a box
+// that was installed, bound, and then went silent IS bound, and its silence is a real fault that
+// must keep alarming. Only a customer that never had a machine at all is UNKNOWN.
+//
+// `host_deletions` is included because a customer whose host was removed HAD one — the deadline
+// caller reaches its down-skip for that shape, and this predicate must not quietly take over a
+// judgement the staleness checker owns.
+func (s *Store) HasEverBoundHost(customerID string) (bool, error) {
+	var n int
+	if err := s.db.QueryRow(
+		`SELECT EXISTS(SELECT 1 FROM hosts WHERE customer_id = ?)
+		     OR EXISTS(SELECT 1 FROM host_deletions WHERE customer_id = ?)`,
+		customerID, customerID).Scan(&n); err != nil {
+		return false, err
+	}
+	return n != 0, nil
+}
+
 // ListHostsByCustomer returns the customer's hosts ordered by host_id (v0.47.0 — the
 // customer page's Host tab is a LIST by design: 1 host today, N for a later HA cluster).
 // Uses the idx_hosts_customer index.