R-195: a customer with no machine ever bound does not alarm (hub v0.92.0) + R-193/R-192 spike

Part 4 (ships): `david` — a prospective customer with hosts=0, host_deletions=0,
reports=0 — e-mailed an expected_dbdump_missed ERROR at 03:00 UTC three mornings
running. The existing down-skip could never cover it: it reads the staleness
checker's state, which is seeded from a query over the `reports` table, so a
customer that never reported has no state at all and GetState() returns "" rather
than "down". store.HasEverBoundHost (hosts row OR host_deletions tombstone) is
consulted once per customer at the top of the deadline loop. The discriminator is
"was a host EVER bound", never "has a report arrived" — a box installed and never
heard from is a real fault and keeps alarming. Fail-OPEN on a read error. Red-proof
observed: removing the guard fails with `got [expected_dbdump_missed]`, verbatim the
event david sent.

Parts 0-3 (spike, NO production code for R-193/R-192):
audits/SPIKE-offsite-credential-recovery-2026-08-04.md establishes that the one-shot
provider password is the RECOVERABLE secret and the restic repository password is the
irreplaceable one — and that a guest rebuild mints a fresh one, orphaning the previous
off-site history. Measured without touching a box, by comparing
host_escrow.restic_pw_sha256 against host_escrow_superseded: BOTH demo boxes changed
(demo-hp 15 snapshots / 40.9 MB, demo-felhom 36 snapshots / 1.14 GB). demo-felhom's
"lucky" 76-second recovery restored delivery and not the repository, silently, for 13h.
ReissueCredentials does NOT rotate the restic password (R-39's record and two hub
comments are wrong -> R-196); candidate (b) is not implementable against a
zero-knowledge escrow; candidate (a) already exists as F3 and is wired to the wrong
event. Ends in ranked options and an unanswered question for the operator.

R-195 SHIPPED; R-196 + R-197 filed; R-192 + R-193 updated, neither closed.

documentation/architecture/00-capability-map.md

@@ -76,7 +76,7 @@
 | Whole-guest backup lands OFF the guest's own physical device; a single-drive box is recorded **DEGRADED** rather than silently normal (installer Case A/B) | agent v0.113, host-install v1.22.0 | **PROVEN-LIVE** | `E2D-fresh-vm-2026-07-29` C1 (real 1.22.0 install, rc=0, `Day-0 provision SUCCESS`) + C2 (both DEGRADED lines verbatim, `local_backup_target=local`, install did not abort) | Case A (a second drive already present at install) has never fired naturally — only Case B has |
 | Nightly DB dumps (postgres/mariadb autodiscovery), atomic writes | controller v0.118 | **PROVEN-LIVE** | `CAMPAIGN-2` T-BAK-FULL (pg+mariadb autodiscovered); atomicity `CAMPAIGN-6B` P4 + `CAMPAIGN-6E` B1/B2 (SIGKILL mid-write → only `.tar.tmp` touched, last-good byte-unchanged); DB restore `CAMPAIGN-6D` P-FAB | (Cited `CAMPAIGN-3` F7 is the *finding* of non-atomic writes, and T-RST-DB was auth-hollow — corrected to the 6B/6E fix-proofs.) T-6E-1 dir-fsync asymmetry (LOW) → R-10 **DB replay route → `07-backup-architecture.md` §8 row 3** |
 | Tier-2 secondary-drive copy: class-driven legs, v2 relpath layout, NAS-target exclusion, safe-remove boundary | controller v0.135 | **PROVEN-LIVE** | `CAMPAIGN-6E-2026-07-15` (P-TIER2 deep-4 PASS), `CAMPAIGN-6C` | **Route + RTO → `07-backup-architecture.md` §8 rows 1, 2, 4, 5.** The matrix records that the copy's `recovery-unit/` mirror is read by no path (→ R-102) |
-| Offsite (restic → Hetzner Storage Box): mandatory class only, raw-data quota, enlargement gate, retention regrouping | controller v0.134, agent, hub | **PROVEN-LIVE** | `CAMPAIGN-6D-2026-07-15` (mandatory-only P-IMMICH; enlargement gate fired at real 50GiB quota P3-DELIVERY); `VALIDATION-offbox-storagebox-2026-07-09` (byte-perfect round-trip) | Raw-data quota (SP-1) + retention regrouping (SP-2) are `SPIKE-restic-snapshot-shape` **dry-run** verdicts — mechanism validated, not fired in a live product run; only the enlargement gate is live-fired. **Reinstall-continuity (controller v0.142.0, 2026-07-17):** a recreated data volume that orphaned the repo (new passphrase can't open the old keys) is now CLASSIFIED (`wrong password or no key found`) → explicit ORPHANED card + event (not nightly-spam) + a move-aside (never-delete) reset (unclaimed auto / claimed confirm), instead of a raw nightly restic error. Fake-based scenarios + red-proofs. **The live leg FIRED on its own during the 2026-07-18 rehearsal** (`tests/VALIDATION-n100-rehearsal-2026-07-18.md`, S7): after a RESET + re-enable, the first offsite run hit the previous lifecycle's ciphertext and the guard **classified it, pushed `offbox_repo_orphaned`, skipped the run and showed the card (16:58:14)** rather than nightly-spamming a raw restic error; the operator-confirmed reset then **moved the repo aside (never deleted) to `.orphaned-20260718` and re-initialised (16:59:26→16:59:32)**, and the next run produced 2 snapshots / 48.717 MiB. The guard behaved exactly as designed — **the finding is that it had to fire at all** (R-32: RESET destroys custody, so the ciphertext it leaves behind is dead by design and should be purged, while the move-aside guard stays correct for reinstall-WITHOUT-RESET). `DIAGNOSE-offbox-repo-orphaned-2026-07-17` **Route + RTO → `07-backup-architecture.md` §8 rows 4, 10, 12, 15** (incl. the R-95 delete exposure and the R-104 stale-lock defect) |
+| Offsite (restic → Hetzner Storage Box): mandatory class only, raw-data quota, enlargement gate, retention regrouping | controller v0.134, agent, hub | **PROVEN-LIVE** | `CAMPAIGN-6D-2026-07-15` (mandatory-only P-IMMICH; enlargement gate fired at real 50GiB quota P3-DELIVERY); `VALIDATION-offbox-storagebox-2026-07-09` (byte-perfect round-trip) | Raw-data quota (SP-1) + retention regrouping (SP-2) are `SPIKE-restic-snapshot-shape` **dry-run** verdicts — mechanism validated, not fired in a live product run; only the enlargement gate is live-fired. **Reinstall-continuity (controller v0.142.0, 2026-07-17):** a recreated data volume that orphaned the repo (new passphrase can't open the old keys) is now CLASSIFIED (`wrong password or no key found`) → explicit ORPHANED card + event (not nightly-spam) + a move-aside (never-delete) reset (unclaimed auto / claimed confirm), instead of a raw nightly restic error. Fake-based scenarios + red-proofs. **The live leg FIRED on its own during the 2026-07-18 rehearsal** (`tests/VALIDATION-n100-rehearsal-2026-07-18.md`, S7): after a RESET + re-enable, the first offsite run hit the previous lifecycle's ciphertext and the guard **classified it, pushed `offbox_repo_orphaned`, skipped the run and showed the card (16:58:14)** rather than nightly-spamming a raw restic error; the operator-confirmed reset then **moved the repo aside (never deleted) to `.orphaned-20260718` and re-initialised (16:59:26→16:59:32)**, and the next run produced 2 snapshots / 48.717 MiB. The guard behaved exactly as designed — **the finding is that it had to fire at all** (R-32: RESET destroys custody, so the ciphertext it leaves behind is dead by design and should be purged, while the move-aside guard stays correct for reinstall-WITHOUT-RESET). `DIAGNOSE-offbox-repo-orphaned-2026-07-17` **Route + RTO → `07-backup-architecture.md` §8 rows 4, 10, 12, 15** (incl. the R-95 delete exposure and the R-104 stale-lock defect). **2026-08-04 (R-193/R-197, `audits/SPIKE-offsite-credential-recovery-2026-08-04.md`) — the row is NOT overclaiming and the guard is not the gap; the CADENCE is.** This row already recorded that a recreated data volume orphans the repo, and the spike confirms the mechanism at source: `WriteOffboxSecrets` (`offbox.go:392`) mints a fresh 256-bit repo password whenever `<DataDir>/offbox/repo_password` is absent, and **no automatic path ever consults the escrowed one** — `InjectOffboxPassword` has exactly one caller, a web form a human pastes into. What was NOT recorded is that this now fires on an **ordinary, planned, unattended guest rebuild**, on every box: measured on BOTH demo boxes 2026-08-03/04 by comparing `host_escrow.restic_pw_sha256` against `host_escrow_superseded.restic_pw_sha256` (demo-hp `8e03eddf…`→`8a9e33aa…`, demo-felhom `48741892…`→`c60c8bc7…`), orphaning **15 snapshots / 40.9 MB** and **36 snapshots / 1.14 GB** respectively. **demo-felhom is the important half:** it kept its DELIVERY (a stale staged secret restored the target in 76 s) and lost its REPOSITORY anyway, with **nothing marking the escrow stale for 13 h** — `escrow_stale` is wired to `ReissueCredentials`, the one path that does NOT change the repo password (**R-196**), and absent from the rebuild path that does. Status unchanged: the classify-and-move-aside guard remains PROVEN-LIVE and correct, and is predicted (not yet measured) to refuse the 2026-08-05 run on both boxes rather than start a silent fresh history |
 | Offsite restore: local-preferred scratch, unit-only default, full two-step, missing-only place-to-live | controller v0.134/134.1/135 | **PROVEN-LIVE** (2026-07-20) | `CAMPAIGN-6D` accept legs (immich end-to-end from offsite alone) | **2026-07-19:** `audits/DIAG-immich-restore-2026-07-19.md` finds **no offsite path loads a DB dump** — all three buttons are file-only (R-43). The mechanics in this row's title are each proven; the phrase "**immich end-to-end from offsite alone**" is what is contested, since a DB-indexed app cannot be reconstituted by any offsite action. **RULED 2026-07-19 (Viktor): 6D's destruction hit the FILE TREE ONLY — the database survived in its named volume** (`immich_postgres_data` is a named volume in both the v2 and v3 template eras), so "immich end-to-end from offsite alone" **overclaimed scope**: the file half was proven, the DB half was never destroyed and therefore never restored. Row downgraded PROVEN-LIVE → **PARTIAL**, scope-corrected. Evidence: `audits/DIAG-immich-restore-2026-07-19.md` (no offsite path could replay a DB at all) + the P-FAB destructive re-import (the proven-replay evidence, on the LOCAL path). **2026-07-19, controller v0.148.0:** the DB half now exists in code (R-43 + R-44) and its replay reached a live box — but **round 2 found it aborts against a running app** (`audits/DIAG-immich-restore-round2-2026-07-19.md`, H4: the replay races immich's own schema repair; `clip_index` recreated by the app 2 s before the dump's CREATE INDEX). **2026-07-20, controller v0.153.0: H4 IS CLOSED (R-47)** — both restore paths now replay into a DB-ONLY window (`StartStackServices` brings up the database service alone; the app starts only after the replay exits 0), with a fail-closed refusal when a dump has no identifiable DB service. *(The earlier note here said "closes in v0.149" — that was wrong: v0.149.0 was the F3 dashboard `BackupStatus` fix. R-47 shipped in v0.153.0.)* **2026-07-20: the clean run HAPPENED** — endpoint-level supervised reconstitute of immich from snapshot `49e7cb46` (the very snapshot that aborted in round 2): stop → DB-service-only start → replay rc-0 → full start, no `already exists`, operation reported SUCCESS, immich's own DatabaseService logged `No schema drift detected` twice, 11 assets `active`, 4/4 containers healthy, 231 `public` indexes. **Operator confirmed the immich timeline renders correctly after the reconstitute** (screenshot held, 2026-07-20). Evidence: `felhom-controller/REPORT.md` §4b. **2026-07-20, LATER THE SAME DAY — the destructive drill RAN and the row now earns PROVEN-LIVE.** The operator deleted the photos in immich own UI **and emptied the trash** (the step whose absence makes a drill prove nothing — the round-1 lesson), then restored through the customer-facing UI. **`40 file(s) placed`** against the 6 of the earlier non-destructive run — the files were really gone and really came back — plus 1 DB dump replayed rc-0, 11 assets `active`, `No schema drift detected`, timeline confirmed by the operator. This is the destroy-then-recover proof the 6D downgrade asked for, and it was taken through the customer own buttons, not endpoint shortcuts. Evidence: `felhom-controller/REPORT.md` 4e **Route + RTO → `07-backup-architecture.md` §8 rows 3, 4** — the matrix also records that no offsite action unpacks the named-volume tars it captures (→ R-107) |
 | Manual `.fab` export/import: class-scoped capture, browser up/download, tunnel-proof chunking | controller v0.125/128/130/136 | **PROVEN-LIVE** | `CAMPAIGN-6D` P-FAB / Accept #1 (1.7 GB full circle, byte-identical, app boots); chunking `CAMPAIGN-6B` P2 (100 MiB via real CF edge, 120 MiB→413) | Chunking proven at the real CF edge via `curl --resolve`; the **rendered browser file-picker** upload leg is still Viktor's open full-circle test (6C ran it NOT-RUN). C6B-F1 was the 6B *finding*; fix verified in 6D |
 | Guest-loss DR: PBS restore with full-fidelity layout from archive, restore-test verification | agent v0.75/0.76, PBS | **PROVEN-LIVE** | `CAMPAIGN-2` T-P9-DESTROY-RESTORE (whole-guest `pct restore` of 9201 → running+healthy) + T-PBS-VERIFY (`verify_state: ok`, 13 snapshots); `DRILL-GL6-2026-07-08` Phase 0d (restore-test `mount_parity: ok`) | (Cited `VALIDATION-newbox-restore` is offbox **restic** file-restore, wrong tier — corrected.) Real **offsite** guest-loss round-trip still R1-blocked → S5 DR drill **Route + RTO → `07-backup-architecture.md` §8 rows 6, 8, 9** — measured 84–112 s local / 1101 s PBS into a scratch guest; a restore to a DIFFERENT host is unmeasured |