diff --git a/hub/CHANGELOG.md b/hub/CHANGELOG.md
index 8e49e1a8..9867185d 100644
--- a/hub/CHANGELOG.md
+++ b/hub/CHANGELOG.md
@@ -12,6 +12,12 @@
   `TestD30_TheAlarmClearsWhenTheNewKeyShakesHands` (red-proved). The stale text says an agent with D30 re-keys by itself
   15 minutes after it sees the sign, plus its next desired-state fetch; the `wg_tunnel_ok` log line is INFO; the source comment no longer says the ok event is
   mailed (it is stored, not mailed — review 2026-10-22 night).
+- **R-1230 — a held box is not „stuck".** Measured on the test night (Tester4, reinstalled): a box that consumed its
+  one-time off-site password and now waits for the household's recovery code reports `offsite.state=
+  awaiting_recovery_key` and no offbox target; after one hour the delivery checker read it as „burned" — a false
+  `offsite_delivery_stuck` mail to the operator and a re-issue of the off-site login (a config bump that restarts the
+  box's controller). The checker now stands down for that declared state (the wait is the household's, it can take
+  days); an undeclared consumed shape alarms as before. `TestR1230_AHeldBoxIsNotStuck`, red-proved.
 - `scripts/wire_contract_gate.py`: `wireguard.last_handshake_age_s` left the unread list (the hub reads it since 0.166.0).
 
 ## v0.166.0 (unreleased — built 2026-10-22 night, NOT deployed; the deploy is the operator's yes) — the clock-ahead tunnel alarm (R-1204)
diff --git a/hub/internal/monitor/offsite_delivery.go b/hub/internal/monitor/offsite_delivery.go
index 1bd6bf1f..957aee56 100644
--- a/hub/internal/monitor/offsite_delivery.go
+++ b/hub/internal/monitor/offsite_delivery.go
@@ -102,6 +102,12 @@ func (c *OffsiteDeliveryChecker) Check() {
 		declared := false
 		if _, _, state, derr := c.store.LatestReportOffsiteDeclaration(cfg.CustomerID); derr != nil {
 			c.logger.Printf("[WARN] offsite-delivery: %s: read declaration: %v (treating as undeclared)", cfg.CustomerID, derr)
+		} else if state == declaredAwaitingRecoveryKey {
+			// R-1230 (test night 2026-10-23, measured): a reinstalled box that HOLDS — its credential consumed, the
+			// household's recovery code not entered yet — reports no offbox target, so it read as „burned": a false
+			// operator mail and a needless re-issue of the off-site login (which restarts the box's controller). The
+			// box says what it waits for; that wait is the household's, and can take days. No event, no heal.
+			continue
 		} else {
 			declared = state == declaredNeedsCredential
 		}
@@ -137,6 +143,11 @@ const (
 // are pinned together by TestDeclaredStateStringMatchesTheReconciler.
 const declaredNeedsCredential = "needs_credential"
 
+// declaredAwaitingRecoveryKey mirrors the controller's backup.OffsiteStateAwaitingRecoveryKey (the box holds: the hub
+// keeps a sealed package and only the household's recovery code opens it). Pinned by
+// TestR1230_AHeldBoxIsNotStuck.
+const declaredAwaitingRecoveryKey = "awaiting_recovery_key"
+
 func shapeOf(status offsite.DeliveryStatus, declared bool) deliveryShape {
 	if declared {
 		return shapeDeclared
diff --git a/hub/internal/monitor/offsite_delivery_test.go b/hub/internal/monitor/offsite_delivery_test.go
index bbdd1fbd..1e729559 100644
--- a/hub/internal/monitor/offsite_delivery_test.go
+++ b/hub/internal/monitor/offsite_delivery_test.go
@@ -300,3 +300,30 @@ func TestDeliveryChecker_QuietShapes(t *testing.T) {
 		t.Fatalf("disabled offsite must be skipped, got events=%v calls=%d", *h.events, h.reissuer.count())
 	}
 }
+
+// R-1230 (test night 2026-10-23, measured live on Tester4): a reinstalled box that waits for the household's recovery
+// code reports `offsite.state=awaiting_recovery_key` and no offbox target. It must raise no „stuck" event and no
+// re-issue — the wait is the household's. The control: the same consumed shape WITHOUT that declaration still alarms.
+// RED-PROOF: with the awaiting_recovery_key skip removed, this fails (a stuck event and a re-issue) — seen failing
+// 2026-10-23 night.
+func TestR1230_AHeldBoxIsNotStuck(t *testing.T) {
+	h := newDTHarness(t, true)
+	h.burnedFixture(t, 5)
+	if err := h.st.SaveReport("c1", []byte(`{"health":{"status":"ok"},"offsite":{"enabled":false,"state":"awaiting_recovery_key","escrow_state":"pending"}}`)); err != nil {
+		t.Fatal(err)
+	}
+	h.checker.Check()
+	if n := len(h.savedEvents(t, "offsite_delivery_stuck")); n != 0 {
+		t.Fatalf("a box waiting for the household's recovery code is not stuck: %d stuck event(s)", n)
+	}
+	if h.reissuer.count() != 0 {
+		t.Fatalf("no re-issue for a held box, got %d", h.reissuer.count())
+	}
+	if err := h.st.SaveReport("c1", []byte(dtReportNoOffsite)); err != nil { // control: no declaration → the old verdict
+		t.Fatal(err)
+	}
+	h.checker.Check()
+	if n := len(h.savedEvents(t, "offsite_delivery_stuck")); n != 1 {
+		t.Fatalf("control: an undeclared consumed shape must still alarm, got %d", n)
+	}
+}