diff --git a/scripts/upgrade_fixtures_box.py b/scripts/upgrade_fixtures_box.py
index 5cc605e..81f8848 100644
--- a/scripts/upgrade_fixtures_box.py
+++ b/scripts/upgrade_fixtures_box.py
@@ -408,6 +408,16 @@ class Nextcloud:
     def seed(self, w, sub, say):
         if not w.wait_app(sub, "/status.php", want=("200",), tries=120):
             return None
+        # /status.php answers 200 while the image's own first-run install is still going — measured
+        # 2026-09-23 night on a loaded bench: `occ` then says "Nextcloud is not installed". Ask occ.
+        for i in range(60):
+            st = self._occ(w, "status", timeout=120)
+            if "installed: true" in st:
+                break
+            time.sleep(5)
+        else:
+            say(f"    nextcloud: occ status never said installed: {' '.join(st.split())[:160]}")
+            return None
         uid = "drill" + secrets.token_hex(3)
         pw = "Drill-" + secrets.token_hex(10)
         out = w.guest(